In a paper1 published in Futures in April 2024, Antonio Gelis Filho argues that there exists a universal limit to technological development (ULTD). He also argues that, based on the principle of mediocrity, the ULTD cannot be much above our current level of technological development.
Technology, therefore, will not be able to provide another home to humankind.
The fundamental reason for the existence of the ULTD is the fact that no civilization can mobilize the energy necessary to test new scientific hypothesis after a point of its understanding of the laws of physics. Professor Gelis describes three main causes:
- Decreasing technological returns on societal complexity,
- Increasing maintenance costs of existing infrastructure needed for technological development
- The occurrence of civilization-damaging environmental, astronomical or geological catastrophes.
The stagnation of a civilization in an incomplete Kardashev I level may, after some time, lead to other incidental causes that add to the stagnation.
The existence of the ULTD solves https://indieresearch.net/tag/fermi-paradox/, explaining the Great Silence and validating the Great Filter postulated by Robin Hanson.
The contact with extraterrestrial civilizations, if it ever occurs, will more probably happen (according to the hypothesis presented in this text) with astrobiological “technology-as-culture” collections of technosignatures.
The ULTD must be below the technological development level necessary to build a Dyson Sphere. Otherwise there should be at least a few civilizations that would have been able to do it since the beginning of our Galaxy and spread all over it. And therefore we should have found a trace of their technosignatures.
Considering the vastness of time and space, if one civilization — ours — has been able to advance technologically to the point of leaving its own planet, why technosignatures from other advanced extraterrestrial civilizations have never been identified? In this paper, I offer an explanation for that, developing an insight originally presented by Webb and others and using insights from astrobiology, sustainability and archaeology. I argue that there exists a universal limit to technological development (ULTD), determined by decreasing technological returns on societal complexity, increasing maintenance costs of existing technology, the eventual untestability of scientific theories due to the high costs involved and the unattainable energy levels needed to test them and civilization-damaging catastrophes. I also argue, based on the principle of mediocrity, that the ULTD is not much above our current level of technological development. Technology, therefore, will not be able to provide another home to humankind. Such a possibility should be taken into consideration during the decision-making process concerning both the allocation of resources to research or mitigation of technology-induced planetary changes and the definition of goals to space exploration.
Interestingly, Antonio Gelis F. is Professor in the Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas. He is an expert in Russia and International studies, and (I suspect) this is the link between his geopolitical studies and Fermi’s paradox:
The ULTD hypothesis is not only relevant for astrophysics and astrobiology; it is also a contribution to public policy development and to government. The reason lies in the fact that our belief in technological progress as limited only by human ingenuity and its ability to mobilize natural resources, soon may lead us to watch massive misallocations towards desperate goals concerning solving our predicaments by betting in projects like terraforming mars.
Professor Gelis’ reasoning on technological development/progress seems very close to Jesús Zamora’s, who has recently published his latest (he also declared it will be his last) book on the matter: “Progreso, ma non Troppo”.
How close, exactly, are we to reach the ULTD? That is not something we can answer precisely. But following Gelis and Zamora’s reasoning it seems that we won`t ever build a Dyson Sphere 😔
We’ll be talking about it sooner rather than later.
Stay tuned.
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(1) Antonio Gelis-Filho, ‘Is There a Universal Limit to Technological Development? Evidences from Astrobiology’, Futures 159 (1 May 2024): 103379, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103379.
Featured Images: Midjourney & NASA
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Very interesting entry. It seems likely there is a point of technological advancement achievable by a civilization (species). However, it may happen that a civilization (species) can be the starting point of another (AI?) that could surpass that limit.
Yes, for sure. If fact this jump is seen by many “visionaries” as unavoidable. (For obvious space travelling and exploring reasons).
In this case, I think Gelis is taking into account that fact, and looking for a broader “universal” (near physics laws) explanation.
My position here is that, although the theme is “exciting,” with the information / knowledge that we have, we can only speculate.
Let’s do it rigorously ;;)
I suppose, first of all, we need a reason for change. That could be internal (war at large scale) or external (asteroid collision or attack from alien civilization). Both scenarios are imaginable, but very unpleasant and, of course, success is not guaranteed.
Otherwise, I do not think it will happen. Just look at China, or Egypt, good civilizations but small change until forced from outside. The same applies to animals, they need an extinction event (asteroid, brutal climate change,…) to give rise to a different race.
I must say I’d rather stay as it is, even if technology does not progress. :))